Monday, September 15, 2008

Max's Electoral College Predictions, Monday, September 15, 2008

Both the conventions are over, and Sarah Palin has been picked as VP for McCain, so I've made some changes. First of all, Montana changes from "Obama-Leaning" to "Strong McCain," and Alaska, the Dakotas, and Georgia changed from "McCain-Leaning" to "Strong McCain." Palin has excited the conservative base so much that it is unlikely for Obama to have a chance at winning Georgia, and her status as an "outsider" to national politics will help McCain get more turnout, and take back some Ron Paul supporters in Montana, Alaska, and the Dakotas. However, I still consider the Ron Paul factor to be important in Nevada, because of the problems with the state Republican convention. West Virginia is still a factor in the race, I wouldn't be surprised if Obama pulls an upset there because of Biden. Although polls showed Virginia leaning more toward McCain after the convention (also because of Palin), and I was going to move it to "McCain-Leaning" a SurveyUSA poll released today shows Obama up by 4% (with a 3.7% margin of error), so for now, I'll keep it in "Obama-Leaning." The EC totals are:

Strong Obama: 197
Obama-Leaning: 95
Total Obama:292

Strong McCain: 157
McCain-Leaning: 89
Total McCain: 246

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why does it matter whether McCain or Obama is elected, since they are both paid for by the same corproate elites who run this country behind the scenes? Have you fallen for the illusion of a free republic in the USA? Wake up, man. That's long gone.

Socialism is on the rise, haven't you heard?

Go on and worry about who will win, but in the end, it will not matter. It's the end result that matters.