The key states in the election are:
- Pennsylvania - Obama will have a tough time winning without PA. If PA goes McCain, I'd say there would be an 85% chance of a McCain victory.
- Florida - the reverse applies here. If FL goes Obama, he'll have about an 85% chance of victory
- New Mexico - the key to winning the 2008 election will most likely be in the west. In NM, Obama and McCain need to compete for the Hispanic vote.
- Colorado & Nevada - Here, it's the libertarian vote that counts. Colorado is a bit harder for McCain, Nevada is a bit harder for Obama. It will depend how many "Ron Paul Republicans" vote for Obama or Barr, and not McCain
- Virginia - Another important state more for Obama, if he gets it, he can afford to lose a bit in the west.
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